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Fantasy Nascar Update -
Top 10 -
1. Martin Truex Jr - Martin Truex Jr is the complete fantasy pick this weekend. He has everything that you would want. Consistency, good track record, a fast car, solid starting position. Typically when you check off all of those boxes, you are a pretty good bet to be strong fantasy pick. Right now, it is hard to leave Truex Jr off your fantasy lineup in general. Week in and week out, he is one of the drivers to beat. This weekend is no difference, either. He is fast and should contend for the win. I honestly think he is the man to beat heading into Sunday's race.
2. Kyle Larson - A year ago, we were wondering when Kyle Larson would score his first career win. This weekend, we are wondering if he will score his 4th career win on Sunday afternoon. He will start from the pole and has a car capable of winning. I think Larson is overdue at Sonoma honestly. He have started in the top 5 in every single start so far in his career. He is really good here, but he has had shit luck though. No top 10 finishes so far. That's not good. He starts well, but doesn't finish quite as well. If this season is any indication, then that really nothing. A few things that he haven't ran well at in the past like Vegas, Phoenix (to certain extend), even Bristol (a lot of bad luck in the past). Are places that he had great runs at this season. You cannot judge (and base) him off his past results. He is a different driver right now. With all of the momentum right now, I don't know if I would go against him honestly.
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick said his car was fast in race trim, but just didn't get a good lap in qualifying. He will start 12th but he should easily move forward in the running order. I think Sonoma is a very underrated track for Harvick. He has ran really strong here the past couple seasons with the #4 team and should be the case, again. The #4 has the speed to be a top 5 contender and the stages could play into his hands. As pit stragies could help him move forward and gain some track position. If he can get into the top 10 before lap 25, then will be in great shape. I think the #4 team will be strong on Sunday afternoon and be a top 5 contender.
4. Kyle Busch - Rowdy isn't great at Sonoma, as I think Watkins Glenn is his better track. But he is a former two-time winner at this track. He won this race just two years ago and many (including myself) would argue that winning here was the stepping stone to his hot streak in 2015. Was it the reason he won the championship? No, but I think this race gave the 18 team and JGR a lot of confidence in themselves. Can we see history repeat itself this weekend? Certainly could. The #18 car is fast this weekend and Kyle sounded pretty optimist about his chances. He said there's a couple faster cars (noticeably the 78 and 14, he mentioned in a pre-qualifying interview), but has a good car. He will start from 4th starting position and that should translate into another strong result. Last year, he started 8th and finished 7th here. Problem is, that is his only top 10 start that resulted in a top 10 finish. He has started 10th or better four times in his career at Sonoma. Three of four has ended in 17th or worse. Not good, but he has finishes of 7th and 1st in his past two starts. He started 8th and 11th. On the season, Busch starting in the top 5 has ended very well. In his last 6 races, when starting in the top 5, Busch has finished in the top 10 in five of those races. All in his last six Cup races, too.
5. Jamie Mac - I love Jamie Mac this weekend and he is starting 2nd place. He has a fast car and was pretty happy about his car in his interview on FS1 on Saturday. Jamie has always ran well here at Sonoma, but don't always get the results. Big difference between this season and seasons' past? CGR has better equipment than ever before. At least, since Jamie has been there. Jamie always seem to run well, regardless. He understands how to get around this place and that's important. Some drivers know how to run well here and some drivers just don't. He has enough speed to contend for a top 5 finish, but I think it will be somewhere in the top 10. Another thing I like about him? He has 5 top 10 finishes in his past 7 cup races. He has a lot of momentum and is very consistent this season, too. His likely range is somewhere between 4th-8th place, most likely.
6. A.J Dinger - Most people probably have Dinger ranked higher than me, but for whatever reason the 47 team never seem to finish out races at Sonoma. I don't know why, but he always seem to wreck or have a mechanical issue. While, we cannot factor in stuff like mechanial issues. However, I do think it is good to give him a bit of a ceiling. Realistically, I guess you rank him over guys such as Jamie Mac and Harvick, if you really wanted to. Most people probably have Dinger ranked 3rd or 4th, at the least the ones that are high on him. I am high on him, too. Just not enough to put him that high. He had good top 10 speed in practice and maybe a little more, too. I thought he was holding back some in practice, honestly. So we will see.
7. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin said his car was really fast in race-trim on Friday and excited about Sunday's race. You cannot forget that Hamlin had finishes of 1st and 2nd in the road courses in 2016. I never been a big believer in past history in general, I have always thought that season data is more relevant to me. However, I think road courses a much different story though. Road courses don't change that much. It is a skill and the same drivers seem to always run well there. Hamlin may be a rare exception. He struggled on the road courses for the past several years, dating back to the 2010 season. Last season something suddenly changed and it has translated into this season, too. He had a really good car on Friday and should be primed for another top 10 finish this weekend.
8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has to be one of the favorites heading into Sunday's race and would be higher on my list, if he qualified inside the top 10. But he got knocked out at the last second in the first round. He had one of the fastest cars on Friday at Sonoma and stood out to many people, including former Sonoma winner, Kyle Busch. The 14 car was near top of the board in both practice sessions on Friday. This comes as no surprise as Bowyer always seems to run well here. I think Bowyer will be at least a top 10 driver when the checkers waves on Sunday afternoon.
9. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson will start outside of the top 20 and will have a long hill to climb to win on Sunday. But it is not impossible to win at Sonoma with a bad starting position. I think this is the season to have a bad starting position at this track. With the stage racing and all of the additional pit strategies, I think it helps the drivers in the back. You can get that track position more easier than in years past. So it not a death sentence by any means. Johnson had speed in his car in practice and has a pretty solid track record, too. He's very underrated, in my opinion. Johnson never get any credit for being one of the best road course racers in the field. He really is good at this place. Two years ago (when Kyle Busch won), he dominated this race and probably would had won, if it wasn't for a late caution. He led 45 laps in that event. In last season's race, he finished 13th. Statically speaking, it was his worst race since 2008 at Sonoma. In terms of final position and driver rating. He's finished 9th or better in every race from 2008 to 2015. His 87.7 driver rating (in last season's race) was his worst mark since 2007. He had 72.7 driver rating, after starting 42nd place in 2007. My point being? Johnson is elite driver with high upside on this type of track. Don't count him out!
10. Kurt Busch - There's a lot of drivers to consider for the final spot in my top 10. Such as Elliott, Blaney, etc. Both the 21 and 24 have better starting position than the 41 of Kurt Busch. But I am leaning with the experienced, proven winner in Kurt Busch. Kurt will start deep in the field, but that won't be an issue for him though. He will move up the running order and contend for a top 10 finish. I didn't really pay much attention to him in practice, but I am sure he will be fine in the race. Busch has always ran well here in past and I doubt it will be any difference on Sunday. In his past 6 races at Sonoma, he has finished 12th or better in every single race. Including 4 Top 5 finishes in that six race span. He finished 10th in last season's event. I do have concern about him though. In 3 of his last 6 races, he has posted a driver rating above 120. 2 of the 3 times he didn't, he finished 10th or 12th. So it suggests that Busch will either dominate or be average. I don't think he will dominate.
Not far off -
Chase Elliott
Dale Jr
Ryan Blaney
Matt Kenseth
All stats are from driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
Top 10 -
1. Martin Truex Jr - Martin Truex Jr is the complete fantasy pick this weekend. He has everything that you would want. Consistency, good track record, a fast car, solid starting position. Typically when you check off all of those boxes, you are a pretty good bet to be strong fantasy pick. Right now, it is hard to leave Truex Jr off your fantasy lineup in general. Week in and week out, he is one of the drivers to beat. This weekend is no difference, either. He is fast and should contend for the win. I honestly think he is the man to beat heading into Sunday's race.
2. Kyle Larson - A year ago, we were wondering when Kyle Larson would score his first career win. This weekend, we are wondering if he will score his 4th career win on Sunday afternoon. He will start from the pole and has a car capable of winning. I think Larson is overdue at Sonoma honestly. He have started in the top 5 in every single start so far in his career. He is really good here, but he has had shit luck though. No top 10 finishes so far. That's not good. He starts well, but doesn't finish quite as well. If this season is any indication, then that really nothing. A few things that he haven't ran well at in the past like Vegas, Phoenix (to certain extend), even Bristol (a lot of bad luck in the past). Are places that he had great runs at this season. You cannot judge (and base) him off his past results. He is a different driver right now. With all of the momentum right now, I don't know if I would go against him honestly.
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick said his car was fast in race trim, but just didn't get a good lap in qualifying. He will start 12th but he should easily move forward in the running order. I think Sonoma is a very underrated track for Harvick. He has ran really strong here the past couple seasons with the #4 team and should be the case, again. The #4 has the speed to be a top 5 contender and the stages could play into his hands. As pit stragies could help him move forward and gain some track position. If he can get into the top 10 before lap 25, then will be in great shape. I think the #4 team will be strong on Sunday afternoon and be a top 5 contender.
4. Kyle Busch - Rowdy isn't great at Sonoma, as I think Watkins Glenn is his better track. But he is a former two-time winner at this track. He won this race just two years ago and many (including myself) would argue that winning here was the stepping stone to his hot streak in 2015. Was it the reason he won the championship? No, but I think this race gave the 18 team and JGR a lot of confidence in themselves. Can we see history repeat itself this weekend? Certainly could. The #18 car is fast this weekend and Kyle sounded pretty optimist about his chances. He said there's a couple faster cars (noticeably the 78 and 14, he mentioned in a pre-qualifying interview), but has a good car. He will start from 4th starting position and that should translate into another strong result. Last year, he started 8th and finished 7th here. Problem is, that is his only top 10 start that resulted in a top 10 finish. He has started 10th or better four times in his career at Sonoma. Three of four has ended in 17th or worse. Not good, but he has finishes of 7th and 1st in his past two starts. He started 8th and 11th. On the season, Busch starting in the top 5 has ended very well. In his last 6 races, when starting in the top 5, Busch has finished in the top 10 in five of those races. All in his last six Cup races, too.
5. Jamie Mac - I love Jamie Mac this weekend and he is starting 2nd place. He has a fast car and was pretty happy about his car in his interview on FS1 on Saturday. Jamie has always ran well here at Sonoma, but don't always get the results. Big difference between this season and seasons' past? CGR has better equipment than ever before. At least, since Jamie has been there. Jamie always seem to run well, regardless. He understands how to get around this place and that's important. Some drivers know how to run well here and some drivers just don't. He has enough speed to contend for a top 5 finish, but I think it will be somewhere in the top 10. Another thing I like about him? He has 5 top 10 finishes in his past 7 cup races. He has a lot of momentum and is very consistent this season, too. His likely range is somewhere between 4th-8th place, most likely.
6. A.J Dinger - Most people probably have Dinger ranked higher than me, but for whatever reason the 47 team never seem to finish out races at Sonoma. I don't know why, but he always seem to wreck or have a mechanical issue. While, we cannot factor in stuff like mechanial issues. However, I do think it is good to give him a bit of a ceiling. Realistically, I guess you rank him over guys such as Jamie Mac and Harvick, if you really wanted to. Most people probably have Dinger ranked 3rd or 4th, at the least the ones that are high on him. I am high on him, too. Just not enough to put him that high. He had good top 10 speed in practice and maybe a little more, too. I thought he was holding back some in practice, honestly. So we will see.
7. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin said his car was really fast in race-trim on Friday and excited about Sunday's race. You cannot forget that Hamlin had finishes of 1st and 2nd in the road courses in 2016. I never been a big believer in past history in general, I have always thought that season data is more relevant to me. However, I think road courses a much different story though. Road courses don't change that much. It is a skill and the same drivers seem to always run well there. Hamlin may be a rare exception. He struggled on the road courses for the past several years, dating back to the 2010 season. Last season something suddenly changed and it has translated into this season, too. He had a really good car on Friday and should be primed for another top 10 finish this weekend.
8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has to be one of the favorites heading into Sunday's race and would be higher on my list, if he qualified inside the top 10. But he got knocked out at the last second in the first round. He had one of the fastest cars on Friday at Sonoma and stood out to many people, including former Sonoma winner, Kyle Busch. The 14 car was near top of the board in both practice sessions on Friday. This comes as no surprise as Bowyer always seems to run well here. I think Bowyer will be at least a top 10 driver when the checkers waves on Sunday afternoon.
9. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson will start outside of the top 20 and will have a long hill to climb to win on Sunday. But it is not impossible to win at Sonoma with a bad starting position. I think this is the season to have a bad starting position at this track. With the stage racing and all of the additional pit strategies, I think it helps the drivers in the back. You can get that track position more easier than in years past. So it not a death sentence by any means. Johnson had speed in his car in practice and has a pretty solid track record, too. He's very underrated, in my opinion. Johnson never get any credit for being one of the best road course racers in the field. He really is good at this place. Two years ago (when Kyle Busch won), he dominated this race and probably would had won, if it wasn't for a late caution. He led 45 laps in that event. In last season's race, he finished 13th. Statically speaking, it was his worst race since 2008 at Sonoma. In terms of final position and driver rating. He's finished 9th or better in every race from 2008 to 2015. His 87.7 driver rating (in last season's race) was his worst mark since 2007. He had 72.7 driver rating, after starting 42nd place in 2007. My point being? Johnson is elite driver with high upside on this type of track. Don't count him out!
10. Kurt Busch - There's a lot of drivers to consider for the final spot in my top 10. Such as Elliott, Blaney, etc. Both the 21 and 24 have better starting position than the 41 of Kurt Busch. But I am leaning with the experienced, proven winner in Kurt Busch. Kurt will start deep in the field, but that won't be an issue for him though. He will move up the running order and contend for a top 10 finish. I didn't really pay much attention to him in practice, but I am sure he will be fine in the race. Busch has always ran well here in past and I doubt it will be any difference on Sunday. In his past 6 races at Sonoma, he has finished 12th or better in every single race. Including 4 Top 5 finishes in that six race span. He finished 10th in last season's event. I do have concern about him though. In 3 of his last 6 races, he has posted a driver rating above 120. 2 of the 3 times he didn't, he finished 10th or 12th. So it suggests that Busch will either dominate or be average. I don't think he will dominate.
Not far off -
Chase Elliott
Dale Jr
Ryan Blaney
Matt Kenseth
All stats are from driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
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